Re: New Concepts: Practical Tsunami & Earthquake Warning Systems

Craig Chilton -- Countdown to 1/20/09: 1,476 days to BYE-BYE Bushie! Forever!!

From:	Craig Chilton -- Countdown to 1/20/09: 1,476 days to BYE-BYE Bushie! Forever!!
Subject:	Re: New Concepts: Practical Tsunami & Earthquake Warning Systems
Date:	Fri, 07 Jan 2005 16:56:38 GMT

On 7 Jan 2005 06:38:37 -0800,
"someone" wrote:
> Craig Chilton wrote:

>> [[[ READERS of this post. Please leave this notice in
>> when responding. Because most of my postings
>> are on social issues, I request that your responses
>> retain the integrity of the full range of cross-postings.
>> Otherwise, I'm likely to miss seeing your response,
>> because I do not normally monitor most of these
>> groups. --Thank you. ]]]
>>
>> TWO KEY WAYS that Populations can be
>> Adequately Forewarned of Tsunamis.
>> And Possibly of Some Impending Major Earthquakes.
>>
>> Just some ideas that have occurred to me over the last few days.
>>
>> (1) Although not all of the precise mechanisms for this are
>> known, it's been determined that almost all ANIMALS
>> sensed the danger of the coming tsunami in time to flee
>> successfully to higher land... and thus, almost NO
>> animals died in it.
>>
>> We probably can't enhance human senses to match
>> theirs -- but we CAN humanely employ them as tools in
>> the future, to warn us.
>>
>> So my first suggestion is that we emplant thousands of
>> birds and and land animals (and possibly include fish) with
>> sensor/transmitters that can be triggered by a heightened
>> "fight-or-flight" adrenaline-rush type of reaction.

> You mean you want a bunch of people sitting around monitoring the
> alerts that go off every time these animals get excited?

It would take very FEW people, who already perform other tasks in
offices/stations such as those run by NOAA. If the system were
developed well enough to be automatic, then little or no human
intervention would be needed to sound the warnings. (More on this,
farther down.)

> And what are you going to do during migration? How about a
> simple tsunami warning system.

The elephants that broke their chains and ran into the hills in
Thailand weren't migratory. Many annimals are territorial within a
very limited range. Those that do move can be compensated for by
their signals being processed through tracking satellite technology.
The key would be to quip ENOUGH animals in all the potential danger
zones with units having long-life batteries. That way, it would take
a minimum number of alarmed animals to be sufficient to trigger an
alert. It wouldn't work if there were too few animals. It wouldn't
work, and it would be an ongoing process, since animals don't live
forever and neither would the electronics. But it COULD protect
every populated oeanic coastline on earth. And be processed from
just ONE location. A simpler system is discussed in my second
suggestion, but the combination of BOTH could be foolproof!

>> These would not have to be geo-positionally tracked
>> when activated. The would merely need to transmit their
>> own unique ID code in each case. The IDs could be
>> recorded ahead of time so that the computer could instantly
>> identify the region in which each implanted animal
>> normally ranges.

Except, as I mentioned, with migratory animals/birds, if those are
used. As I just now described.

>> Then a computer simply would need to be set not to
>> react when normal levels of alerts are being sent... and to
>> give warning ONLY when a regional cluster of abnormal
>> numbers of responses come in all at once, or within a
>> short span of time. The warning it would give could
>> identify the region in which the heightened reactions
>> were occurring, and the intensity. The operator then
>> could scan for varying levels of reaction, to get a handle
>> on the geographical scope of the reaction at verying
>> levels of alarm on the part of the animals.

> By the time they figure out whether or not there is real danger and
> alert people, how much time do you suppose will have passed?

That probably would depend largely on the human factor. If the
system could be built to be so effective as to trigger warnings
(without risk of false alarms) automatically, it could be as little as
a minute or less. But if a human operator needed to make an
assessment first, that could result in a fatal delay. The ideal would
be to build the system to be effective the very first time out of the
gate, automatically. This probably would require significant testing
with various animals to establish the necessary baselines.

>> The last step in the process would be for either the
>> operator or the computer itself to send an emergency
>> signal to pre-determined sites and agencies that could
>> *immediately* trigger tsunami/earthquake sirens.
>>
>> (2) Just as the military has placed sonobuoys that can
>> detect submarine movements, I see no reason why our
>> present levels of technology couldn't be employed to
>> deploy permanent buoys that would detect an abnormal
>> spurt of underwater current. Surviving scuba divers
>> who were submerged when the tsunami hit them reported
>> two effects: a "whiteout" reduction of visibility when
>> they were impacted, and a fierce current such as they
>> had never before experienced.. It therefore should be
>> possible to utilize this new knowledge. The buoys could
>> be deployed by the hundreds throughout the world's
>> oceans, and trigger a signal to satellites when either
>> phenomenon occurs to an abnormal degree. Reporting
>> both direction and intensity. This could be tied in with
>> the same central computer that monitors the implanted
>> animals in (1) above, which then can issue an alert
>> signal to those same sites and agencies.
>>
>> The first could warn of both major eartquakes and tsunamis.
>> The second could warn of tsunamis only. Both could save untold
>> numbers of lives, if pursued carefully and thoroughly for the fastest
>> possible emission of warning to populations.

> We have that. They just don't employ it in the areas hit. I'll give
> you this. It's a better suggestion than having everyone read Arthur C.
> Clarke.

For those who may be curious, in a previous post that didn't reach
most of these groups, I simply pointed out that around 50 years ago,
in his novel, "Childhood's End," Clarke (who now, coincidentally,
lives in Sri Lanka) described a dramatic receding of the ocean from
the shoreline as a prelude to a tsunami. And I said that this could
have been a lifesaver for some who had read that classic book and
then remembered that warning sign when they observed it. At least one
10-year-old girl had learned about that sign from some source, and she
screamed out a warning that saved 100 people in THIS tsunami.

>> Thanks for taking the time to give this some consideration,

> Wouldn't have missed it. You're always good for a laugh.

[[[ NOTE to those in the scientific groups: As I mentioned
above, most of my posting is on social issues. This
response to my post was from a regular malcontent who's
bigoted against a range of personal liberties, so he
regards faiur-minded and sensible, egalitarian *defenders*
of those rights to be good for laughs... apparently not
even being smart enough to realize that HE is the
laughingstock. ]]]

-- Craig Chilton